LTH supply rising sharply
+312K BTC / 30d
The Bitcoin bottom,
measured precisely.
A 14-point framework that scores every cycle-bottom signal in real time, then tells the desk exactly when to act.
3/ 14
ACTION WAIT
Too few signals confirmed. Preserve capital and stay patient.
0 - 4
WAIT
5 - 7
DEPLOY
8 +
GO
What's working right now
Three of the fourteen conditions are confirmed. These are the signals quietly building the floor.
Exchange reserves declining
-48K BTC / 30d
ETF flows: 4+ weeks inflows
6 weeks net in
The 14-point checklist
Every signal, grouped by discipline, with its live reading and the threshold it has to clear.
01
MVRV below 1
1.74
Not met02
NUPL in capitulation
0.41
Not metLTH supply rising sharply
+312K BTC / 30d
Confirmed04
Hash Ribbon BUY re-cross
no cross
On watchExchange reserves declining
-48K BTC / 30d
Confirmed06
Drawdown 55-70% from ATH
-18.6%
Not met07
200-week SMA tested
+39% above
Not met08
Weekly RSI under 30
47.2
Not met09
SMC: range reclaim
pending
On watch10
Funding negative / OI washed
+0.011%
Not metETF flows: 4+ weeks inflows
6 weeks net in
Confirmed12
Fear & Greed below 15
38
Not met13
Mainstream 'Crypto is Dead' posts
low chatter
Not met14
12-14 months since cycle top
~7 months
On watchWhat each indicator means
The reasoning behind every line of the framework, in plain terms.
MVRV below 1
Market Value to Realized Value. Below 1 means the average coin is held at an unrealized loss - the network is underwater. Historic cycle bottoms print MVRV under 1.
NUPL in capitulation
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. The capitulation band (below 0) marks the point where the market as a whole is sitting on losses and weak hands have flushed out.
LTH supply rising sharply
Long-Term Holder supply. Coins moving into wallets dormant 155+ days signals conviction accumulation by patient capital - the classic footprint of smart money buying weakness.
Hash Ribbon BUY re-cross
Tracks miner capitulation via hash-rate moving averages. A BUY re-cross fires when the 30-day recovers above the 60-day, marking the end of miner stress.
Exchange reserves declining
Total BTC held on exchanges. A sustained decline means coins are leaving for cold storage - shrinking sell-side liquidity and tightening available float.
Drawdown 55-70% from ATH
Depth of the correction from the all-time high. Prior cycle bottoms carved out between 55% and 70% below the peak before reversing.
200-week SMA tested
The 200-week simple moving average has acted as the cycle floor every bear market. A wick into or below it has marked every macro bottom to date.
Weekly RSI under 30
Relative Strength Index on the weekly timeframe. A reading under 30 is deeply oversold and has coincided with major capitulation lows.
SMC: range reclaim
Smart Money Concepts. Confirms a reclaim of a broken range low - liquidity swept below support, then price closes back inside the range, flipping structure bullish.
Funding negative / OI washed
Perpetual funding turning negative while open interest collapses means leverage is paying shorts and speculative positioning has been wiped - a leverage reset.
ETF flows: 4+ weeks inflows
Net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Four or more consecutive weeks of inflows confirms sticky institutional demand absorbing supply at these levels.
Fear & Greed below 15
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index. A print below 15 is Extreme Fear - the sentiment regime that has framed every durable bottom.
Mainstream 'Crypto is Dead' posts
A contrarian tell. A surge of mainstream obituaries declaring crypto dead historically clusters around maximum pessimism and price lows.
12-14 months since cycle top
Cycle timing. Bottoms have historically landed roughly 12 to 14 months after the prior cycle peak, when the bear has had time to fully exhaust.